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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It commonly serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence receives the award. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or just the most shocking upset.

But the current competition is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions falling away and recent underperformers ascending in unison. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this wild and fun season, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still