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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their new city leader this election day, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the country's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd